US pending home sales fall to a record low in September

The National Association of Realtors' index drops 7.3% from August to 66.0, the lowest reading on record.

The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index fell to 66.0 in September, down from 71.2 in August, a drop of 7.3% and the lowest level the index has recorded, according to NAR data published via Investing.com's economic calendar. Signed contracts were down 11.3% from a year earlier, CNBC reported.

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed through the month, starting September near 6.8% and ending it at 7.6%, according to Mortgage News Daily figures cited by CNBC. NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said housing affordability is driven more by moves in mortgage rates than by job growth or income gains, CNBC reported.

A separate measure of pending sales from Redfin, which uses a different methodology than NAR's index, fell to its lowest level since spring 2014 excluding April 2020, Redfin said.

Pending home sales track signed contracts rather than closings, so September's drop points to weaker demand still working through the pipeline even after existing home sales ticked up to 3.99 million that same month. A record low in this forward-looking measure suggests that uptick may not carry into coming months, since fewer signed contracts now means fewer closed sales later. The gap between a steady closings print and a deteriorating contracts print leaves the housing data mixed rather than confirming any stabilization.