UBS raises its Brent crude forecast to $110 a barrel for year-end
The new figure sits below the level Brent reached intraday on October 21 and 22.
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Chart: USO, a fund that tracks crude, one-minute prices, three sessions
UBS has raised its Brent crude forecast to $110 a barrel for year-end. It raised its fourth-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $100 a barrel from about $80, and its 2026 average to $91.57 from $83.74, Reuters reported. In that note, UBS said new attacks and supply disruptions could send Brent to $120 a barrel or more. It also said prices could fall faster if the US and Iran reach an agreement.
On October 21 and 22, Brent traded intraday above $111 a barrel, toward five-month highs, as supply fears pushed futures higher. The new $110 year-end figure sits below that level. Since the Houthi and Bab el-Mandeb escalation began, Brent has traded above earlier bank forecasts several times.
The Energy Information Administration expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 above its previous forecast, Wealthier Today reported. A forecast roundup from Naga lists Morgan Stanley at $105 for the fourth quarter, BMI at $107, Goldman Sachs at $90 for December, and Citi at $70. Citi's figure assumes the Strait of Hormuz reopens this quarter.
Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled. Tehran says the US blockade of Iran must be lifted first. Houthi attacks had stoked supply fears.
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