UPS beats third-quarter estimates and raises 2026 outlook

Revenue came in at $22.90 billion, against $22.51 billion expected, and the company expects fourth-quarter revenue of about $25.7 billion.

UPS reported third-quarter earnings of $1.69 per share, $0.05 more than expected. Revenue was $22.90 billion, against $22.51 billion expected. Chief executive Carol Tomé said the results reflected strengthening business fundamentals, driven by premium growth and greater network efficiency. The company raised its full-year guidance on that basis.

For 2026, UPS now expects consolidated revenue of about $92.6 billion, adjusted operating profit of about $8.75 billion and adjusted diluted earnings per share of about $7.28. Adjusted figures are company measures that fall outside standard US accounting rules. For the fourth quarter, the company expects revenue of about $25.7 billion and adjusted operating profit of about $3.3 billion.

The raised 2026 outlook matters more than the quarter itself. The third-quarter beat is modest by comparison. UPS also lifted its adjusted free cash flow target to about $6.1 billion. Free cash flow is the cash left after spending on the business. For 2026 the company expects capital spending of about $3.0 billion, dividend payments of around $5.4 billion, subject to board approval, a tax rate of about 23 per cent and $1.3 billion in pension contributions.

The open question is whether premium growth and greater network efficiency can carry the fourth-quarter outlook of about $3.3 billion in adjusted operating profit.