US payrolls beat forecasts, jobs grow 90,000 in September
The gain topped both August's 75,000 rise and the 38,000 forecast by economists, adding to bond-market pressure ahead of the Fed's October decision.
Published
US employers added 90,000 jobs in September, up from 75,000 in August and far above the 38,000 economists had expected.
The report lands days after traders trimmed the odds of an October Fed rate hike to 50-50 from 70%, following comments from New York Fed President John Williams that policymakers were in no rush to act. Williams had pointed to strong economic momentum and flagged artificial intelligence investment as a driver of inflation. The euro fell to $1.1312, its weakest level since May 2025, after those remarks.
Other Fed officials had kept a hawkish tone even as the rate odds slipped. Fed Vice Chair Musalem said artificial intelligence spending is adding to inflation pressure and that productivity gains from it have not yet appeared, and said the Fed cannot ease policy on hopes those gains will materialise. Barr and Goolsbee had also struck a hawkish note in recent days. The September jobs report also comes after JOLTS data flagged a softening labor market late in the month.
The 10-year Treasury yield is already above 5.2%. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 7.3%, the highest since November 2023, and mortgage applications fell 6.0% in the week ended September 25, a steeper drop than the prior week's 1.5% decline. A payrolls beat of this size cuts against the view that the Fed is in no hurry to move, and reopens the question of whether the labor market is firmer than that framing suggested. With long-term yields already near multi-decade highs on inflation persistence, the stronger jobs print gives the hawkish officials fresh grounding just as market pricing had started to diverge from their message.