Chicago Business Barometer jumps to 58.8 in September, far above forecast
The regional manufacturing gauge cleared the 50-point expansion line by a wide margin, beating a forecast of 51.0.
Published
The MNI Chicago Business Barometer came in at 58.8 for September, well above the 51.0 reading economists had expected.
The index has spent long stretches below the 50-point line that separates expansion from contraction. As of August 2025 it stood at 41.5, marking the 21st straight month below that threshold, according to Trading Economics.
September's number beats the forecast by a wide margin rather than a narrow one. Regional business surveys like this one are volatile and drawn from a small sample, so a single month's beat does not on its own confirm a turn in the broader manufacturing trend. The size of the surprise raises the stakes for the next national manufacturing reading, as traders will want to see whether the strength shows up there too or proves to be specific to the Chicago area.