US GDP grows 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had put third-quarter growth at 3.3%. Personal income rose just 0.2% in August, so the new figure sits against a softer income picture.
Chart: US real GDP, annualised change on the quarter
US GDP grows 3.4% in the third quarter of 2026, a strong reading that cuts against the softer income picture from late summer.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model had put growth at 3.3% on October 28, so the figure is close to what that model showed.
The income data point the other way. Personal income rose just 0.2% in August against a forecast of 0.5%. Spending was already running ahead of income that month, which suggests households were drawing down savings rather than relying on higher earnings to keep activity up.
A print this firm suggests underlying demand may be stronger than the income figures implied. That raises a question for the Fed: whether it can lean as heavily on a cooling consumer when setting policy.
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