The Closer, October 26, 2026

Brazil's political shock dominated the session's risk-off impulse, but it didn't stop the broader market from closing higher. The Dow finished up 0.28% at 52,362.78 and the Nasdaq rose 0.83% to 26,169.72, even as Brazilian equities posted their worst day since 2020, down 13.9%, after Lula da Silva's runoff win over Bolsonaro triggered an 8% slide in the real and a near-20% intraday plunge in Bovespa futures. The divergence underscores how contained the contagion has been so far: US investors treated the selloff as a regional event rather than a systemic one.

Earnings flow was heavy and mostly constructive. Cadence Design Systems beat and raised full-year guidance to 21% revenue growth, while Celestica lifted its 2026 outlook and issued an initial 2027 forecast calling for $40 billion in revenue, both reinforcing the AI infrastructure buildout narrative. Welltower and Public Storage raised full-year guidance on strong occupancy and FFO trends, and Nucor, Hartford and Cincinnati Financial all topped estimates. Not everyone delivered: Whirlpool and JetBlue missed badly, Amkor came up short on revenue, and Brown & Brown's in-line quarter still sent shares down 4.0% after hours.

After-hours trading stayed mostly flat across benchmarks, but the semiconductor supply chain kept rallying, with Credo Technology up 5.1%, Jabil up 2.3%, and Astera Labs up 2.3%, extending the regular-session chip strength. Vertiv added 2.1% after closing its King Environmental Services acquisition. The WisdomTree Artificial Intelligence and Innovation Fund fell 2.7%, a reminder that thematic AI exposure isn't moving in lockstep with the hardware names driving it.

Elsewhere, Dollar General disclosed an FTC lawsuit alongside multiple states alleging consumer protection violations, the Justice Department charged former FBI Director James Comey, and gold reclaimed $4,000 an ounce as investors reassessed the Fed's rate path. Natural gas futures dropped to their lowest level since April on milder weather forecasts. In Israel, officials said Netanyahu pushed for a new strike on Iran ahead of elections but met resistance from military leadership, keeping the Middle East risk backdrop unresolved heading into the next session.