Senator Who Saw Iran War Plan Says It Will Backfire

Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy says he was briefed on a short US campaign against Iran planned for after Nov. 3. He gave no details, but says the government's plan "is insane".

Speaking at the Middle East Institute in Washington on Wednesday, Murphy said he had a “fairly detailed conversation” about the war plan during an intelligence briefing, and that it is built to be short. Asked for specifics, he pointed to public reporting on civilian infrastructure that may be targeted. He said the approach would prolong the war and prove “devastating to our security interests.” He also warned it would damage the US commitment to the rule of law.

Murphy made a second charge the same day. He accused the Pentagon of hiding the extent of Iranian damage to US bases in the region. “This is just very clearly a cover-up,” he said. A Defense Department Inspector General report in September found that Iranian missiles and drones have damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures across the region.

Murphy's warning may feed the pressure campaign he opposes. First, US negotiators are using the threat of renewed war as leverage, and a threat only works if Tehran believes it. Second, a hostile witness is the best proof. When a leading Democratic critic says he has seen the plan, and that it is short and tied to a window, it is harder to dismiss. Third, the plan is already public. The US told Gulf states to prepare and details reached the NYT, WSJ, AP and Axios, which looks more like signaling than surprise. Fourth, Iran has reason to doubt Trump, since its state TV claims he backed off at least five times, so anything that restores credibility helps him. The counterpoint is that Murphy also says the plan will fail, which tells Iran it can wait, and nothing reported shows coordination with the White House.

What the mainstream reporting says the plan is

The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has told Gulf states to prepare for a short, intense campaign after the vote. The Associated Press reported that allies were also told to prepare for Iranian retaliation against energy facilities and other critical infrastructure.</
The New York Times reported that US and Israeli planners have drawn up a short operation aimed at nuclear sites, energy infrastructure, and missile and drone storage. Oil refineries are expected to be spared to avoid a further jump in fuel prices.</
Axios-based reports describe roughly a week of heavy strikes, including on Iranian leadership. One Israeli source said the plans do not include civilian infrastructure such as power plants. Accounts differ on length and on target types.</
Trump has not made a final decision. He says there will be no strikes before Nov. 3, and he has declined to rule them out afterward. The White House says all options remain on the table.</
The Pentagon is reportedly reinforcing missile defenses and moving troops, ships and aircraft. US officials are also using the threat of renewed war as leverage in talks over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz.

The legal fight

Murphy's rule-of-law warning lands on a live dispute over whether hitting Iranian energy infrastructure is lawful.

Critics, including more than 100 international law professors who signed an open letter earlier this year, argue that strikes on civilian power infrastructure violate the Geneva Conventions' rules on civilian objects. PolitiFact found that view widely accepted, with some gray area.

Defenders say grids and energy plants often serve military and civilian uses at once, and that law allows strikes on dual-use targets that feed an enemy's war effort. Retired Air Force Maj. Gen. Charles Dunlap, now at Duke Law, has also argued the law of reprisal applies. The US, Israel and Iran are not parties to Protocol I of the Conventions, which carries the most specific rules.