Starbucks guides 2027 revenue down even with an extra week of sales to prop it up

A fourth-quarter earnings beat of $0.80 a share came with revenue of $9.14B against $9.42B expected, and a margin target that leaves little room if sales fall faster.

Starbucks expects revenue to fall about 1% in fiscal 2027, and that guide is propped up by an extra week in the fiscal calendar, which supplies about $700 million of sales. Without it the underlying fall is deeper than 1%. The same week adds slightly more than 10 cents to guided non-GAAP earnings of $3.15 to $3.25 a share.

The fourth quarter pointed the same way. Revenue of $9.14B missed the $9.42B analysts expected, while earnings of $0.80 a share beat by $0.07. The beat came from margin discipline rather than sales, which says the "Back to Starbucks" turnaround is still weighing on the top line.

The operating targets do little to change that reading. North America comparable coffeehouse sales are guided to grow about 4.0%, a modest figure against the store closures that preceded it. The company still plans about 1,200 net new coffeehouses worldwide, led by International.

Management is meanwhile returning cash rather than reaching for growth elsewhere. The board declared a dividend of $0.63 a share, payable November 27 to holders of record on November 13, and buybacks resume in fiscal 2027. Chief financial officer Cathy Smith said the recently increased dividend and the planned repurchases reflect confidence and a focus on long-term value. Choosing that over a Chipotle-style acquisition suggests Starbucks intends to fix its own business first.

That puts the weight on the non-GAAP operating margin guide of 13.5% to 14.0%. If revenue declines by more than the calendar effect implies, there is little cushion left.