First Solar cuts 2026 sales and volume guidance despite a profit beat in the third quarter

Revenue of $1.23B fell short of the $1.31B expected, and the company now sees 16.0 GW to 17.0 GW sold this year, down from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW.

First Solar beat on earnings but lowered its outlook for the year, and the outlook is what counts. Third-quarter earnings per share were $5.30 on a GAAP basis, $0.55 better than expected, while revenue of $1.23B missed the $1.31B forecast.

The cuts run through every operating measure. Volume sold is now seen at 16.0 GW to 17.0 GW, down from 17.0 GW to 18.2 GW. Net sales guidance falls to $4.6 billion to $4.9 billion from $4.9 billion to $5.2 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA to $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion from $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion. Capital spending is also lower, at $0.6 billion to $0.8 billion rather than $0.8 billion to $1.0 billion. For the fourth quarter, the company expects Adjusted EBITDA of $643 million to $843 million.

That sits awkwardly beside the message from Chief Executive Mark Widmar. He calls Section 232 a structural change in U.S. solar manufacturing policy and says First Solar, a fully integrated manufacturer with no reliance on the Chinese crystalline silicon supply chain, is structurally positioned to benefit. Perhaps so, but a smaller volume range says the benefit is not yet in the numbers, and investors are being asked to take the policy gain on trust while the targets shrink.

The board's new $500 million share repurchase programme, with no expiration date, pulls the other way. It returns capital just as the company trims its operating goals, and it reads more as a signal of confidence than as evidence of the growth that the policy argument promises.