Rivian raises delivery and EBITDA guidance after a smaller-than-expected third-quarter loss

The electric-vehicle maker lifted the bottom of its delivery range to 67,000 and trimmed its expected loss, but a tariff refund flatters the profit outlook.

Rivian reported a third-quarter loss of $0.48 a share, $0.16 better than expected, on revenue of $2.15 billion against forecasts of $2.02 billion, and raised its full-year guidance. The beat is real. The quality of the raise is more mixed.

The delivery outlook now starts at 67,000 vehicles instead of 65,000, while the top of the range stays at 70,000. That narrows the forecast toward the upper end of the old span without lifting the ceiling, a modest signal of confidence rather than a step up.

The profit guidance carries more weight, and more caveats. Rivian now expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.75 billion to $1.85 billion for the year, $100 million better at the midpoint. The company credits regulatory credit revenue that came in above plan, higher expected deliveries, and a receivable booked in the quarter for a refund of tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The refund belongs to one quarter, so part of the improvement will not repeat.

The cut to capital spending is also less clear-cut than it looks. Rivian lowered its full-year capex range by $300 million at the midpoint, to $1.40 billion to $1.50 billion, and puts this down to the timing of spend. If the money is merely deferred, it returns in later quarters and the saving is illusory.

The next reports are the test: whether deliveries and regulatory credit revenue hold up once the refund no longer helps, and whether the postponed spending reappears.