Intercontinental Exchange tops third-quarter profit forecast and brings MarketAxess close forward

The company now expects its acquisition of MarketAxess to close in the first quarter of 2027.

Intercontinental Exchange reported third-quarter earnings of $2.02 per share, $0.03 above expectations. Revenue came in at $2.77 billion, in line with the $2.77 billion that was expected.

The company guides to 2026 recurring revenue growth of 9% from its exchanges and 8% from fixed income and data services. For the fourth quarter it expects operating expenses of $1.317 billion to $1.327 billion under GAAP, the US standard accounting rules, or $1.082 billion to $1.092 billion on an adjusted basis. Non-operating expense is guided at $170 million to $180 million under GAAP, or $175 million to $185 million adjusted. Capital expenditure for 2026 is about $1.050 billion. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding for the fourth quarter are expected to be 558 million to 563 million.

Following US antitrust clearance under the Hart-Scott-Rodino Act, Intercontinental Exchange now expects its acquisition of MarketAxess to close in the first quarter of 2027. It had previously said the first half of 2027.

The antitrust clearance had already removed the main uncertainty over the deal. Earnings now move the timeline forward rather than simply confirm the clearance. The first quarter of 2027 is earlier than the market had been pricing. Warren Gardiner, the company's chief financial officer, said Intercontinental Exchange expects to keep returning capital to shareholders alongside its plan to reduce debt after the MarketAxess deal closes. That points to a combined balance sheet able to absorb the acquisition without slowing buybacks or dividends once MarketAxess becomes a subsidiary.