The Opener
Published
The Hormuz standoff remains unresolved heading into Tuesday's session, but the tone has shifted from stalemate toward tentative diplomacy. Overnight, Iran's foreign minister Araqchi told the cabinet and president he has received a formal US proposal, according to state media, the clearest sign yet that Wednesday's collapsed Qatari-mediated talks may be reopening through back channels. Markets have reason to stay cautious given how quickly Tuesday's optimism reversed once Trump said he'd offered Iran nothing.
Boeing's F/A-XX win over Northrop Grumman continues to dominate premarket trading, with Boeing up 2.9% and Northrop down 4.5%, confirming the after-hours reaction as a durable repricing of the two contractors' future revenue mix rather than a one-session pop.
Elsewhere in premarket, Robinhood is up 2.7% and Nebius Group is up 2.1%, while Moderna is down 4.1% and Labcorp is up 2.0%.
Central banks are increasingly framing the energy shock as structural rather than transient. The Bank of England's Financial Policy Committee said rising oil and gas prices have caused a longer supply disruption and that the odds of simultaneous financial risks have risen since July, even as it described UK households, businesses and banks as well-capitalized. Governor Bailey separately called for more testing of AI models before and after deployment.
Data out of Europe was mixed but firmer than expected in places: UK second-quarter GDP rose 0.5% quarterly against a 0.4% consensus, with business investment up 5.2% year-over-year, well above forecasts. Germany's import prices and retail sales both beat expectations, while France's September inflation came in hot at 3.4% year-over-year against 3.2% expected, alongside softer consumer spending.
On the supply side, Russia extended its diesel export ban through October, Iraq reported September oil exports averaging 2.65 million barrels a day, and the UAE's energy minister reiterated support for OPEC+ coordination amid rising demand for additional output. The US has also formally ended Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq.
With Iran's response to Washington's proposal still unknown, oil and rates markets look likely to take direction from any further word out of Tehran before the open.