Volkswagen keeps cash flow outlook as its 2026 margin forecast falls to 1 per cent

The company said the average analyst expectation had been 4.1 per cent. In the same statement it kept its Automotive Division net cash flow outlook at €3 billion to €6 billion and its net liquidity outlook at €32 billion to €34 billion.

Volkswagen said special effects of around €10 billion will weigh on 2026 operating profit, with €0.9 billion already reported in the first half. They include a non-cash impairment of around €6 billion on goodwill allocated to Porsche, which hits third-quarter operating profit. Excluding special effects, the full-year margin would be about 4 per cent. The July guidance had been minus 3 per cent to 0 per cent.

In the first half, Volkswagen's automotive net cash flow was €3.2 billion, against minus €1.4 billion a year earlier. The operating margin was 3.8 per cent, or 4.3 per cent before special items.

Mercedes-Benz cut its 2026 outlook, citing China and higher costs. Its preliminary third-quarter figures came in above the analyst consensus the company listed.

Keeping the cash flow outlook gives Volkswagen management a number to defend. It comes on top of the margin cut to 1 per cent, a UK motor finance liability, terminated labor pacts, a salary freeze through 2030, a 14.3 per cent fall in deliveries, and a third-quarter revenue shortfall and operating loss. Each of these has already put pressure on the cost base that management now needs to protect the cash flow figure.