Iran is pressed on nuclear concessions as strikes loom after the US midterms

Brent crude was at $115.60 a barrel on Sunday, October 25, and the Gulf premium has fallen from $34 to about $6 a barrel.

Axios reported, citing Israeli and regional sources, that Iran is being pressed to make nuclear concessions. The same reporting said strikes are being considered after the US midterm elections in November, and that they could target Iran's leadership. It also said the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the US are coordinating ahead of any possible attack on Iran.

Qatari mediators have presented Iran with a new draft deal in Tehran. Tehran is weighing it and will reply by the end of the week. Iran's navy said a tanker hit sea mines east of the Strait of Hormuz, and talks to reopen the strait have stalled. Iranian state TV said the US blockade of Iran must be lifted first. Tehran says the blockade has cut its imports by 25 per cent. Iran's Foreign Minister warned that Israeli action in the Gulf would hit world markets. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said US forces and regional partners control the Strait of Hormuz waterway.

US Energy Secretary Wright said the Iran war has "come at a cost."

Renewed fighting could delay Israel's vote, or make it harder for the opposition to form a government afterward. Washington's public line has been restraint until the vote. Even so, the coordination language between the IDF and the US mirrors the carrier and personnel buildup already under way in the Gulf, which suggests contingency planning continues. A campaign after November aimed at leadership, rather than a single strike window, would widen the retaliation Iran has warned of beyond the shipping lane. Iran has rejected the latest Hormuz proposal and warned that any Israeli-instigated action would hit international markets broadly.