CBA's Vivek Dhar says Brent may need $150 a barrel to cut demand in emerging Asia

Brent crude fell 0.7 per cent to $115.87 a barrel and WTI slipped 0.9 per cent to $102.33, as of Sunday evening in New York. Oil had rallied more than 6 per cent last week to a six-month high. Brent has risen around 90 per cent this year, driven by war-related supply disruptions. Traders are watching further US-Iran escalation and regional clashes, which threaten oil stocks. Technically overbought conditions and Middle East risk have kept prices volatile.

CBA analyst Vivek Dhar said Brent may need to reach $150 a barrel to trigger significant demand destruction in emerging Asia. Demand destruction means high prices cut how much fuel people and businesses buy.

The estimate puts a number on a threshold that months of escalation headlines have left unstated. Brent reached a five-month high today on carrier deployments and Trump's acknowledgment that another operation remains possible. A $150 level sits well above the current range. The US-Iran standoff would need a much larger supply shock before Asian demand cracks, such as a confirmed closure of the Strait of Hormuz or major damage to energy infrastructure. Until then, higher energy costs will weigh on equity sentiment gradually rather than through a demand shock. For US stocks, the main channel is the gap between Trump's no-strike pledge and the Pentagon's ongoing contingency planning, which was in place as of Saturday, October 24.