Oil rises to a five-month high as U.S. equities fall

The rise reverses the sharpest weekly fall in crude since April, which came in the week ending October 23.

The move reverses the sharpest weekly fall in crude since April, which came in the week ending October 23. That fall had been read as a sign that uncertainty over a ceasefire had drained the risk premium on the Strait of Hormuz. The rise undercuts that read. U.S. equities also declined.

The US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group and 10,000 more personnel toward the Persian Gulf. Travel advisories in the region have also been widened. On October 23, Trump said the US may conduct another operation against Iran. Trump pledged no strikes on Iran before November 3. That pledge still formally stands.

Talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, with Tehran wanting the blockade lifted first. Iran says a blockade of its southern ports has cut its imports by 25 per cent. Trump says flows through the Strait now exceed pre-conflict levels. Iran says it has stopped illicit vessel traffic there. Netanyahu says intelligence indicates that Iran and its proxies may try to disrupt Israel's elections.

The premium on Hormuz risk, which had seemed to fade with ceasefire uncertainty, is reasserting itself. The formal pledge not to strike still holds, but the military moves and Trump's acknowledgment of a possible new operation sit alongside it.