Malaysia's palm oil exports fall 12.13% in September to 1.12 million tonnes
Malaysian Palm Oil Board data show a second straight monthly decline, though a smaller one than cargo surveyors had expected.
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Malaysia shipped 1.12 million tonnes of palm oil in September, down 12.13% from August, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said. It is the second consecutive monthly drop in shipments.
The fall is smaller than cargo surveyors had flagged ahead of the data, when forecasts pointed to a decline of between 17% and 29%. A Reuters survey cited by Futunn News had projected a milder drop, of 7.3% to 1.2 million tonnes. The smaller actual decline suggests demand erosion is real but not as severe as traders had priced in.
Production has been running at a record pace this cycle. The same Reuters survey, cited by Futunn News ahead of the release, had forecast September crude palm oil output jumping 15.7% from August to 2.1 million tonnes, which would mark a fourth straight monthly increase. Inventories had been expected to reach a new all-time high by the end of September, with some analysts estimating stocks could climb to around 3 million tonnes or more, surpassing the previous record set in December 2018, according to Futunn News.
Buyers in key markets have been favouring cheaper substitute vegetable oils, which has kept shipments soft even when currency moves would otherwise help Malaysian palm oil's competitiveness. With a smaller-than-feared export drop still pointing toward further inventory build rather than any drawdown, the combination of rising stockpiles and persistent export softness keeps the supply overhang intact heading into the next reporting month.