Corn futures fall 4.8% on WASDE report day
The move comes as the October crop report is released, though the department's new figures are not yet confirmed
Published
Corn futures are down 4.8% on Friday, the session in which the U.S. Department of Agriculture released its October World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and Crop Production reports at 11am Central time, according to Pro Farmer. The specific figures in that release, including any new yield or stocks number, have not been confirmed.
Ahead of the report, a Reuters poll of analysts had expected U.S. corn production to fall to 15.721 billion bushels, with 2026/27 ending stocks projected at 1.670 billion bushels, according to Total Farm Marketing. The same poll put the average yield estimate at 177.8 bushels per acre, down from the USDA's September estimate of 178.5 bushels per acre. December corn was trading at $5.01 and March corn at $5.16 on the morning of October 9, before the report, Total Farm Marketing said.
The September WASDE had already shown a comfortable supply picture, with corn end stocks at 1.567 billion bushels assuming steady production. Last week's Quarterly Grain Stocks report put 2025-26 corn ending stocks at 2.095 billion bushels, up 173 million bushels from that September estimate, according to Pro Farmer.
Any further widening of the supply cushion would push stocks-to-use even further from tight territory and reinforce the case for low near-term price pressure in grain markets. The pressure on futures comes as farmers already face rising input costs, with prices paid up 5.3% in August while prices received fell, a combination that would squeeze margins further if cash corn prices follow futures lower. Broader row-crop sentiment is likely to stay weighed down as long as yield estimates keep climbing ahead of harvest.