Qatari mediators are in Tehran to discuss the latest US peace proposal, Axios reports

Tehran is weighing a new draft and is due to reply by the end of the week, after rejecting Washington's seven-day Hormuz plan as a list of unacceptable demands.

Qatari mediators are in Tehran putting a new draft deal to Iran, Axios reports, and Tehran is weighing it with a reply due by the end of the week. The visit is the clearest test yet of whether the optimism of the past two days has anything behind it.

That optimism came from Tom Barrack, the US envoy, who said Washington was "very close" to a deal to ease tensions with Iran. But talk has been the easy part. Qatari shuttle diplomacy in this standoff has tended to yield drafts and deadlines that one side or the other then rejects, and on October 28 Iran dismissed Washington's seven-day plan for the Strait of Hormuz as "unacceptable demands".

The cost of another rejection is plain. US and Israeli officials expect a week-long bombing of Iran if there is no deal, Axios has reported, and Trump has told CENTCOM to draft a strike plan. He has pledged no strike before the November 3 election, but the Pentagon holds a strike directive with no date, a top admiral has briefed him on options, and defences in the Middle East are being reinforced with extra munitions. The pledge covers only the days before the vote. It is not a promise of restraint after it.

So this visit matters less as an event than as a signal. Iran's answer will show whether it is moving toward acceptance or toward another refusal before that window opens.

The strait itself offers no calm. Iran's Guards Navy says it stopped two tankers south of Hormuz for going dark, and says three others caught fire after hitting mines off the strait's southern coast. US Central Command says the main transit routes are clear of mines. Brent stood at $115.60 a barrel on Sunday, October 25, when the Gulf premium had fallen from $34 to about $6 a barrel. The US Oil Fund, USO, rose 1.03% to $168.29 in Thursday's regular session, October 29.