US Gulf oil shut-ins climb to 25.08% of output as Hurricane Isaias approaches
The share of Gulf production taken offline has nearly tripled in a day, from 9.24% on October 6 to 25.08% now, according to MMA.
Published
Map: North America, marking Mobile
US Gulf of Mexico oil production shut in for Hurricane Isaias has reached 511,619 barrels per day, or 25.08% of output, according to the Marine Minerals Administration (MMA). That is up sharply from 9.24% of Gulf oil production and 3.36% of natural gas production shut in as of October 6, according to MMA data cited by Transport Topics.
Isaias is a Category 2 storm forecast to strengthen and reach the Gulf Coast near Mobile, Alabama early on October 10, Transport Topics reports. Forecasters quoted by the outlet, including risk modeler Chuck Watson of Enki Research, say confidence in the storm's track remains below average and its effects could extend east to Pensacola, Florida and Eglin Air Force Base.
Chevron is evacuating nonessential personnel from its Gulf platforms as a precaution, Transport Topics reports, and says it does not expect changes to production or operations at this time.
A quarter of Gulf output going offline is a large enough share to show up in weekly production data if it persists. Gulf production normally makes up a meaningful slice of total US crude supply, so pulling a quarter of it offline tightens the physical barrel count even as onshore shale keeps pumping without interruption. Brief, partial curtailments rarely move the market, but a sustained outage of this size can start to show up in refinery inputs and regional pricing. Whether the next MMA update shows the percentage climbing further or fading will decide if this stays a one-day data point or turns into a multi-week supply story.