US oil trader places $2 billion bet on tankers as Hormuz transit stays impaired
The wager comes as transit through the Strait of Hormuz runs near two vessels a day against a pre-conflict average of 125
Published
Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz
A US oil trader has taken a $2 billion position on tanker markets as carriers continue to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, betting that disrupted shipping through the waterway will persist rather than resolve.
Transit through the strait has fallen 80% from February levels, a shortfall that has doubled year-on-year. Traffic is now running near two vessels a day, versus a pre-conflict average of 125. UKMTO has reported seven vessel strikes near the strait since September 28.
Iran has said repeatedly that the strait will not reopen under pressure, and an adviser to the Revolutionary Guards commander has said illegal routes through it will be targeted. Iran has also said it will soon block what it calls illegal routes, pointing to its missile range. Those statements follow a pattern seen before, where reopening claims have been followed by fresh strikes on outbound vessels, including two reported on October 2.
The US Energy Information Administration has raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $98 a barrel, citing tight diesel supply and the Hormuz disruptions, and now expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
The size of the tanker bet signals that traders are now putting capital behind the view that Hormuz transit stays impaired, rather than simply hedging against the possibility. That matters because the strait's status has flipped repeatedly between official reopening claims and fresh strikes on vessels, and a wager of this scale suggests sophisticated traders expect the disruption to outlast the latest round of claims, keeping the risk premium in crude oil intact.