Market Wrap
Published
Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz
The S&P 500 ended the session down 0.2%, as a sharp internal rotation defined the day: semiconductors surged while software, IT services, and rate-sensitive sectors sold off, with an escalating Strait of Hormuz crisis and rising global yields providing the macro pressure underneath.
The geopolitical backdrop grew more acute through the session. Iran's IRGC fired at least five cruise missiles at ships in the Strait of Hormuz and struck the Togo-flagged tanker Trend, which caught fire and stopped. A separate explosion was reported near the Strait early afternoon, and Centcom confirmed it had directed 105 commercial ships for compliance checks. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb has also been disrupted following Houthi advances on the Red Sea coast, with Saudi exports through that route running at under a third of the year's seven-day average since August. Saudi Arabia separately informed European oil refiners they will receive no crude next month. US crude oil futures settled at $100.30 per barrel, down $1.61 on the day. Trump told NewsNation he is still deciding whether to take military action against Iran, while also saying the US is talking to the Houthis and that they would like a deal. A White House official confirmed Trump plans to sign the Russia sanctions bill today.
The yield environment added a second layer of pressure. The French 10-year yield climbed 11 basis points to 4.56%, its highest since 2008, and Scope downgraded France's credit rating to A+ from AA-. The Bank of Japan raised its overnight call rate to 1.25%, and Governor Ueda kept markets off balance throughout the session, ruling out no options and signaling the bank can act without a lengthy observation period, though the yen fell 1% against the dollar as markets read the tone as more cautious than hawkish. Fed Governor Schmid supported the rate hike and cited inflation trending above 3%, calling geopolitical challenges a driver of rising bond yields. JPMorgan pulled forward its ECB hike forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point move in December and another in March 2027. August US industrial production was flat month-over-month against expectations for a 0.3% increase. The Eurogroup leader is considering an emergency meeting on rising energy prices.
The clearest expression of the session's rotation was in technology. The semiconductor complex led the market higher, with Lam Research up 6.7%, Applied Materials up 5.6%, KLA Corp up 4.4%, Texas Instruments up 3.3%, and Analog Devices up 3.2%. The broader Technology Select sector gained 0.8%. Software and IT services moved in the opposite direction, with Accenture down 4.7%, Qualcomm down 5.5%, IBM down 3.4%, Salesforce down 2.2%, and Oracle down 1.9%. Industrials finished up 0.4%, led by power infrastructure names Eaton, Vertiv, and Quanta Services each rising around 3%. Materials fell 1.4%, with Nucor the worst in the sector at -5.8% on reports the US is pushing for 50% steel tariffs among G20 partners. Utilities fell 1.4% in step with rising yields, and Real Estate dropped 0.9%. The Financials sector was flat overall, masking extreme dispersion. Momentum led all factors, up 1.6%, while value, dividend, and minimum volatility factors all declined, reflecting the day's rotation away from defensive and rate-sensitive positioning.
Company News
- Coinbase gained 11.8% and Robinhood gained 9.1%, both running on a broad crypto-adjacent bid that also lifted Strategy Inc, which finished up 16.4%.
- Sandisk rose 7.5% and Seagate gained 6.6%, continuing a storage hardware rally, with Coherent Corp up 6.8% among optical and connectivity names.
- Netflix fell 4.6%, the largest single-stock decline among widely held names, with no catalyst in the supplied sources.
- General Motors dropped 5.0% and Ford Motor fell 3.0%, with US carmakers and suppliers separately sending a letter to Trump urging a ban on Chinese imports.
- Lennar fell 3.9% and D.R. Horton declined 1.8%, as homebuilder ETFs continued their slide alongside rising yields.
- Space names were broadly sold: AST SpaceMobile fell 6.6%, Rocket Lab dropped 5.1%, and Redwire Space declined 7.0%, with the VanEck Space ETF down 3.0%.
- Steel Dynamics guided Q3 EPS to $5.34 to $5.38, well above the $3.69 in the second quarter and $2.74 a year earlier, citing metal margin expansion and record shipments, even as its stock was under pressure during the session.
- Volkswagen cut its full-year operating return on sales guidance to 1% from a prior range of 4% to 5.5%, a concrete illustration of how the energy and geopolitical shock is transmitting into corporate results.
- Philip Morris International raised its quarterly dividend 8.8% to $1.60 per share, extending its streak of annual increases to every year since going public in 2008.
- Aon priced $13.5 billion in senior notes across seven tranches to fund its acquisition of USI Advantage Corp.
- Rexford Industrial completed the $1.2 billion sale of a 22-property industrial portfolio to an EQT Real Estate affiliate, bringing year-to-date dispositions to $1.5 billion and reaffirming 2026 guidance.
- Berkshire Hathaway appointed Warren Buffett as chairman emeritus.
- Eli Lilly reported its Inluriyo combination therapy doubled progression-free survival versus Inluriyo alone in ESR1-positive metastatic breast cancer, with Inluriyo receiving its second FDA approval in under a year.
- Trump announced most-favored-nation drug pricing for Medicaid programs covering nearly 70 million Americans across all 50 states.
- Jana Partners is pushing Cooper Companies to replace its chief executive and consider asset sales.
- Amazon faces an EU investigation over suspected price controls imposed on sellers.
- CoreWeave increased its convertible senior notes offering to $3.7 billion from $3.0 billion.
- Westinghouse plans to seek a valuation exceeding $50 billion for a US IPO.
- Anthropic and OpenAI are reported to be seeking smaller, more distributed data center deals to expand AI capacity, while Anthropic separately aims to have 5 gigawatts of compute by year end.
- Nvidia's Jensen Huang, Apple's Tim Cook, and OpenAI's Sam Altman plan to attend a state dinner with Trump and China's President Xi, with the US Treasury Secretary scheduled to discuss AI and rare earths with China's Vice Premier this weekend.