Stournaras says ECB may wait until December before cutting rates again

The ECB policymaker leaves the door open to an October rate rise if inflation accelerates

ECB Governing Council member Yannis Stournaras said the central bank may wait until December before cutting interest rates again. He said inflation is being shaped by fiscal policy and the AI investment boom, and that weaker growth data could justify a pause in the cutting cycle.

"It's wiser to wait until December if there are questions," Stournaras said. He added that the ECB should stay alert to inflation trends and that an October rate increase is possible if price pressures build. He said there is no sign yet of second-round effects, but the central bank cannot ignore ongoing supply shocks.

Other policymakers have struck a similar tone. ECB President Christine Lagarde has also said there is no evidence of second-round inflation effects. ECB Governing Council member Olli Rehn has said the inflation picture has shifted since the bank's last comfort zone, and Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf has said every meeting is live, with inflation risks skewed to the upside since September's rate move. Euro-area households raised their one-year inflation expectations to 3.0% and their three-year expectations to 2.9%, both up from July.

JP Morgan now expects the ECB to raise rates in March 2027, following a December increase, reversing its earlier forecast that rates would stay on hold through 2027. Stournaras's openness to an October hike, paired with his acknowledgment that weaker growth may call for a December pause, keeps the ECB on the same data-dependent path it has signalled in recent weeks. It does not shift the broader picture: markets still price four 25 basis point hikes by the end of 2027.