Le Pen leads first round of 2027 French presidential vote, Cluster17 poll finds

The poll puts Le Pen at 31%, with Gabriel Attal second at 17%, ahead of a first round due in April 2027

Marine Le Pen would win the first round of France's 2027 presidential election, according to a Cluster17 poll fielded October 14-15 among 1,263 people. Le Pen took 31% of first-round voting intentions in the scenario tested, with Gabriel Attal second at 17%.

The first round is scheduled for April 18, 2027. Under France's two-round system, the top two finishers advance to a run-off, so a first-round lead does not by itself decide the presidency.

A separate poll by OpinionWay for Les Echos and Radio Classique, fielded October 13-14, put Le Pen higher, between 35% and 37% depending on the scenario. An earlier Cluster17 poll for Politico in September had already shown Le Pen leading the first round at around 31%, with Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Édouard Philippe competing for second place.

The result keeps National Rally at the centre of any election scenario, reinforcing the fiscal consolidation plan Le Pen has already set out, including a deficit target below 3% of output by 2032 and more than €140 billion in spending cuts. A first-round lead does not guarantee a governing majority, so the practical policy implications stay limited until later stages of the race clarify the outcome. Even so, the poll keeps French political risk on the radar for investors tracking euro-area fiscal trajectories, given how specific and large the proposed cuts are.