Barkin says inflation running higher than hoped, won't prejudge October Fed meeting
The Richmond Fed president says producer price data will shape his view, leaving him alongside Bowman in the wait-and-see camp rather than with officials pushing for more tightening
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UpdateWednesday, October 14, 2026 at 2:48 PM ET
The producer price data Barkin is waiting on is due Thursday. Traders' near 90% odds on a December rate hike assume the hawkish camp prevails, according to the later filing. Officials say a reading confirming the CPI acceleration would narrow room for policymakers to stay neutral, while a softer number would revive the case for patience made before the CPI report.
Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Wednesday that inflation is running higher than he had hoped, and he declined to say how he will vote at the Fed's October meeting. He said he wants to see the producer price index before forming a firmer view on where prices are headed.
The remark lands a day after the Beige Book showed eight of the Fed's twelve districts describing price growth as moderate, with three of those also flagging faster-rising input costs. Citigroup has added a December rate hike to its forecast while still expecting cuts in 2027.
Barkin's position puts him with Governor Michelle Bowman in holding off on a verdict, in contrast to Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Boston Fed President Susan Collins, who have all argued more tightening is needed. Hammack has said the Fed needs more restraint to hit its 2% inflation target and that price pressures are broadening beyond artificial intelligence spending to other companies and consumers still willing to invest. Goolsbee has warned that tariffs and oil prices could push the economy toward stagflation, and separately has called artificial intelligence itself an inflation problem.
Barkin's comment adds little new to a debate that September's hot consumer price index reading has already tilted toward the hawkish side. Traders are now pricing roughly 90% odds of a December rate move and have added bets on further hikes through 2027. Long-dated Treasury yields, which had only briefly pulled back from a 5.24% high before that inflation data, remain unresolved by Fed commentary alone and are still waiting on the next data point.