Russia's draft 2026 fuel export forecast cut to 98.5 million tons
A draft government forecast lowers the 2026 outlook by 24.1 million tons from May's estimate, Reuters reported this month
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A draft forecast from Russia's government, reported by Reuters, cuts the country's projected 2026 fuel export volume to 98.5 million tons. That is 24.1 million tons below the estimate the government set in May, and 27.3 million tons below actual exports in 2025, Reuters reported.
Reuters attributed the cut to export bottlenecks and intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, which have reduced fuel production and caused gasoline shortages in parts of the country. To ease those shortages, Russia has banned diesel exports and restricted sales of gasoline and jet fuel abroad, according to Reuters, citing the draft forecast.
The same draft raises Russia's 2026 crude oil export forecast by 7.5 million tons to 244.7 million tons, up from 230.8 million tons in 2025, with the additional crude going mainly to China and India, Reuters reported. The forecasts are still in draft form and are expected to be finalized later this month as part of federal budget preparation.
Ukraine's president has said Ukrainian drones can now reach Russian factories as far as Siberia, and that Russia's wartime budget deficit is the largest of any year since the invasion began, with most Russian regions already in fiscal deficit. The fuel export cut reflects war-driven strain on Russian refining capacity rather than a shift in Moscow's diplomatic position: talks between the United States and Russia are ongoing, and no new sanctions targeting oil exports have been announced. The figure matters to markets mainly as a signal of whether Russia's refining losses are set to deepen.