Lower oil prices have eased inflation worries, supporting Treasuries and weighing on the dollar. The 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.88%, well below the 5.31% it reached on October 5.

The 30-year yield hit 5.70% in early October, its highest since 2002, so this is a retreat from a period of real stress. It rests on oil and inflation, a different driver from the fiscal and auction pressures behind earlier swings in long yields. That looks like a narrower base for a rally.

The Fed's path is still open. It held its key rate at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 on a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a rise. Fed official Lorie Logan says the bank needs at least two more quarter-point rises, and BofA Global Research expects rises of 25 basis points in December and again in March 2027. September PCE inflation eased to 3.1% annually, below the 3.6% expected, but the monthly readings accelerated. Data that mixed leaves cheaper oil as thin cover for anyone betting on lower yields.

Investors are looking past potential Washington gridlock, with strong earnings and continued AI demand supporting the equity outlook. A calm stock market also makes a rush out of long-dated bonds less likely, and that is a second support for Treasuries.

The Treasury sells $58bn of 3-year notes on November 9, $42bn of 10-year notes on November 10 and $25bn of 30-year bonds on November 12.

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