CarMax targets mid-teens adjusted EPS growth a year through fiscal 2030

The Shift into GEAR plan leans on pricing, Tier 2 lending and $200m of run-rate savings exiting fiscal 2027.

CarMax has set targets of mid-single-digit growth in used retail units and mid-teens growth in adjusted EPS. Both are compound annual rates through fiscal 2030, measured from fiscal 2026.

The plan, called Shift into GEAR, has three parts. CarMax will improve pricing and selection. It will expand CarMax Auto Finance into Tier 2 lending, with a goal of 40% penetration by fiscal 2030. And it will cut reconditioning, logistics and SG&A overhead, with management pointing to $200m of run-rate savings exiting fiscal 2027.

The base year is a weak one. Used unit sales were already falling in fiscal 2026, and comparable used-vehicle sales dropped 9% in that year's third quarter. Management cut retail margins to win buyers back. The unit goal therefore depends on whether the new pricing reverses the decline or only stabilizes it.

The Tier 2 push adds a second dependency. It ties earnings to credit performance among lower-credit borrowers, a risk that grows if consumer credit keeps tightening. Online rivals Carvana and Amazon are the main outside test of whether better pricing and selection turn into volume.