Trump's claim that the US has "knocked out two of their regimes" in Iran is talk, and the decision that counts is a strike order he has not given. He has pledged no attack before Tuesday's midterm election, while keeping the blockade in force.

The Pentagon has drafted a three-day strike plan after Trump rejected five others, so the military option is ready and only the order is missing. Axios reported that Netanyahu is pressing Trump to resume strikes immediately after Tuesday's vote. An Israeli source called their Saturday call "tough" and a US source called it "direct".

The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump has told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran by the end of November. Axios, citing US and Israeli officials, reported that they expect a week of bombing if there is no deal.

Trump said on September 28, October 6 and October 13 that the war would end soon, yet none of those remarks brought a signed deal or confirmed concession. Axios's Barak Ravid reported that Trump had decided to strike Iran's nuclear sites before he publicly denied it, ahead of Operation Midnight Hammer. His words, whether boast or denial, are weak evidence of what comes next.

The market is the better guide. Crude fell below $90.50 on October 8 after Trump ruled out a strike before the election, and the pledge has capped the risk premium since. That premium is the extra price traders pay for the chance of war. In pre-market trading today the oil fund USO fell 2.41 per cent to $164.76 on hopes of a US-Iran deal, so the tape is siding with diplomacy over rhetoric.

But Tehran has given little to hang those hopes on. Iran's armed forces chief said a wider list of US and Israeli targets has been drawn up, completing planning that Khamenei ordered. Tehran still rejects Washington's Hormuz plan and says it is not ready for nuclear talks. Oil is trading on a deal Iran has not accepted. Iran is weighing a Qatari draft, with its reply due by the end of the week.

© Raydn · raydn.us