A merchant ship's captain has told UKMTO that another vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile in the Strait of Hormuz. Unless the strike brings confirmed damage or casualties, it most likely joins a long run of reports that have fed an argument over the facts without changing how much shipping moves.

That argument is the real subject. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran is studying the nuclear proposals that Qatar and Pakistan are passing on in writing, but that only Iran's own plan is on the table for Hormuz. Iran rejected Washington's seven-day plan on October 28, calling its terms unacceptable demands. Mediators and Iran have been reported discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. This is a dispute over who moves first, not a slide toward something worse.

The incident reports themselves are patchy. UKMTO logged seven strikes near the strait between September 28 and October 4. On October 23 it reported a tanker hit by an unknown projectile near Oman, and last Friday a vessel struck 40 nautical miles south of Lavan Island.

Oil has largely looked past them. Saudi oil volumes in October were close to September's, and Aramco says its Yanbu and Shaybah sites show no damage. The premium on Gulf crude has fallen from $34 a barrel to about $6. When the previous report ran on Friday, the oil fund USO was up 1.35% at $170.45.

Traffic is the caveat. Transit through Hormuz is down 80% from February levels, and in the weeks the strikes were first reported it ran near two vessels a day against a pre-conflict average of 125. Crude flows were reported edging back toward pre-war levels on October 22, with diesel still tight. A market that has priced in a damaged but working strait will move only on evidence that the damage has grown.

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