Morning Briefing
Published
Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz
S&P 500 futures point to a modestly higher open, up about 0.1%, as markets try to stabilize after a session defined by an escalating Strait of Hormuz conflict and a deepening credit scare around AI infrastructure financing, neither of which has resolved overnight.
US Central Command confirmed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps projectile sank the Singapore-flagged tanker GFS Pride, with all 21 crew rescued, while a second vessel suffered hull damage in a separate attack; crude settled Thursday up 3.03% at $97.97 a barrel. CBS reports the White House is preparing plans involving the "mother of all bombs" against Iran, though Trump said he would not use a nuclear weapon and suggested non-refinery targets remain available once allied munitions stocks are replenished. The IEA has agreed to complete release of an outstanding 100 million barrels and is pushing for an additional 20 million barrels of diesel, with total member releases since March set to exceed 400 million barrels. Separately, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined to signal the likely direction of policy through year-end, saying stronger global investment activity represents the upside story for growth, which leaves odds of an October move unresolved.
The AI financing unwind continues to pressure chips, with the Semiconductor ETF down 1.4% and the VanEck Semiconductor ETF off 0.9% in the latest reading, while Technology lags at -0.4% even as Consumer Discretionary leads at +0.8% on a 3.2% gain in Tesla. CoreWeave is down 5.2% on debt and cash-flow concerns despite Nvidia's Jensen Huang defending the company's financial health, and Netflix, Nebius, Sandisk and AST SpaceMobile are also among the weaker names. Indonesia's ETF is down sharply following an MSCI market classification review.
Company News
- Travelers reported Q3 EPS of $9.18, well above expectations, but shares are down 3.8%.
- Truist, Citizens Financial and Regions Financial all topped EPS expectations; Truist agreed to sell $7.7 billion of unsecured consumer loans to Carlyle Group.
- Charles Schwab reported in-line EPS on light revenue.
- Interactive Brokers missed EPS estimates but raised its quarterly dividend to $0.15 from $0.0875.
- Alcoa beat EPS estimates and reaffirmed 2026 production guidance.
- J.B. Hunt missed EPS estimates despite revenue above expectations.
- Varonis Systems agreed to be acquired by Thoma Bravo-backed Proofpoint for about $6.3 billion, or $49.75 a share in cash.
- Semtech raised its fiscal third-quarter outlook on data center demand strength.
- Super Micro Computer named Mark Long as CFO, succeeding David Weigand.
- KFC is in advanced talks to switch from Pepsi to Coca-Cola across thousands of US restaurants starting January.
Overseas Data
Eurozone CPI for September came in at 3.8% year over year, matching both expectations and the prior reading, offering the ECB no new signal.
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda said the G20 discussed the impact of Middle East tensions and AI on the economy, and that the BOJ will focus on entrenching 2% inflation while assessing the neutral rate. Germany's upper house approved a further release of oil stocks following the G7 agreement.