EIA lifts 2026 Brent forecast to $98 a barrel on tight diesel and Hormuz disruptions
The agency now expects Brent to average $105 in the fourth quarter, citing falling inventories and repeated strikes near the Strait of Hormuz
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Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz
The US Energy Information Administration raised its 2026 Brent forecast to $98 a barrel, an increase of 8% from its prior estimate. The agency pointed to falling global inventories, tight diesel supplies and ongoing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. It expects Brent to average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter.
The call lands after weeks of mixed signals from the strait. Tanker traffic has fallen 80% from February levels, and UKMTO has recorded seven vessel strikes near the waterway since September 28. Transit now runs near two vessels a day, against a pre-conflict average of 125, and Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned ships away from the US-backed transit route. Iran's government has repeated that the strait will not reopen under pressure.
That stands in contrast to the US Navy's announcement on October 2 that the strait had reopened and crude was flowing freely. A tanker was struck by an unknown projectile in the strait that same day, the fourth such strike since mid-September.
The fund had already fallen 2.41% to $143.82 a share after Saudi Aramco cut its Arab Light price for Asian buyers, a discount that suggested physical supply was looser than the market's risk premium implied. The EIA's upward revision runs counter to that recent price action. It rests on a full-year view of diesel tightness and inventory draws rather than a read on current flows, leaving energy-linked equities and crude exposed to whichever proves durable: sustained disruption through Hormuz, or a recovery in transit.