Euro falls to $1.1312, weakest since May 2025, as dollar gains
Traders trimmed the odds of an October Federal Reserve rate rise to 50-50 from 70% after New York Fed President John Williams said policymakers are in no rush to act.
Published
The euro fell 0.5% to $1.1312, its weakest level since May 2025. The currency is down 2.6% against the dollar so far in September, while the dollar spot index has gained about 2% over the same period.
The drop came even as traders pared back bets on an imminent Fed move. Odds of an October rate increase fell to 50-50 from 70% after Williams said there was no need to rush into further tightening. Williams has said one more rate increase is still likely before the end of the year, and traders continue to expect that single move.
The dollar's advance this month reflects those US rate expectations and the rise in Treasury yields, rather than any shift in European Central Bank policy. That makes the move largely a story about the US rate path rather than a signal on the euro area. For holders of TLT, which tracks long-dated Treasuries, further yield gains tied to an expected Fed increase point to continued price pressure, a modest bearish tilt, though the currency move itself adds little new information beyond what markets had already priced in for the Fed's path.