Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro run near even in Brazil runoff polls
Recent surveys show the two candidates within margin of error of each other ahead of Brazil's first-round vote on October 4
Published
Brazil's presidential race has tightened into a near-tie in runoff scenarios pitting former President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, according to polling published this month by AtlasIntel and BTG Pactual/Nexus.
The two pollsters differ on which candidate holds a narrow edge, but both put the race within their stated margins of error. That marks a shift from late August, when AtlasIntel's runoff poll showed Lula with a wider lead over Flavio Bolsonaro.
Brazil's first round of voting is scheduled for Sunday, October 4. A runoff would follow on October 25 if no candidate wins a majority outright, according to the Rio Times. All recent runoff polling has matched Lula against Flavio Bolsonaro, not his father, who is not the candidate in these matchups.
The tightening reflects continued polarization in Brazilian politics, but it does not change the shape of the race so far. Lula holds a decisive lead in first-round polling, and it is that lead, not the tied runoff numbers, that will determine whether he faces Flavio Bolsonaro at all.