German industrial production rises 0.7% in September against a forecast fall of 0.1%
Output has now risen two months running after a 1.1% fall in July, but factory orders are swinging too hard to call it a recovery.
German industrial production rose 0.7% in September from August, when economists had expected a fall of 0.1%. It follows a 2.0% rise in August, which was itself well above the 0.5% forecast.
Two strong months do not make a turn. Output fell 1.1% in July, and the rises since look like a rebound from that fall more than a new trend. The September figure beats the forecast, but it does not show that factories are getting steadily busier.
Factory orders point the same way. They rose 4.4% in September, just under the 4.5% forecast, after a 10.6% fall in August and a 2.5% gain in July. A rebound of that size after a fall of that size says little about where demand is heading, and production that follows orders will stay choppy too.
The Economy Ministry said on October 14 that the economy's momentum had likely slowed temporarily in the third quarter and that the outlook for industrial activity remained subdued. One better month does not overturn that.
© Raydn · raydn.us
Related news
German factory orders rebound 4.4% in September after August's slump
The rise, a shade under the forecast, is smaller than the August fall and leaves the mixed run of German industrial data unresolved.
German retail sales fall 2% in September, missing a forecast gain as prices climb
The drop follows a 1.3% rise in August and lands as German inflation is speeding up, leaving the European Central Bank facing weak shoppers and rising prices at once.