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Geopolitics

Iran's Guards say two tankers and a tugboat caught fire in Hormuz as US says routes are clear

US Central Command says American forces have cleared every recognised main route of mines, and the premium on Gulf crude has fallen from $34 a barrel to about $6.

Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Revolutionary Guards say two tankers and a tugboat have caught fire in the Strait of Hormuz, The National reports.

The Guards have said 11 tankers have burned there since October 25. Central Command says US forces have cleared every internationally recognised primary route of mines and that those routes remain clear.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations centre logged a vessel on fire north of Khasab on October 28 and another northeast of it on October 29, cause unknown. The International Maritime Organization says at least 123 ships have been attacked in and near the strait since late February, and the true number could be higher.

The physical damage so far looks contained. Saudi shipping tracker data show October volumes nearly matching September, and the premium on Gulf crude has fallen from $34 a barrel to about $6. Transit through the strait is still down 80% from February levels. One more claim does not by itself show new disruption. It does keep the argument over who controls the strait open, which feeds the broader risk aversion tied to how long the conflict lasts.

The diplomacy has not moved with the claims. Iran rejected Washington's seven-day Hormuz plan on October 28, calling its terms "unacceptable demands, not an offer". Qatari mediators have twice taken a new peace plan to Tehran, and it does not appear to have been accepted. An official briefed on the talks says Iran will answer the Qatari draft by the end of the week. Axios reports US and Israeli officials expect a week of bombing if there is no deal.

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