Iran's Revolutionary Guards say 11 tankers have burned in the Strait of Hormuz since October 25, but the price of oil is not behaving as if that were so. Saudi shipping tracker data show October volumes nearly matching September, and the premium on Gulf crude has fallen from $34 a barrel to about $6.

Iran's navy said on October 31 that a tanker caught fire in Hormuz after hitting mines, and the Guards Navy has claimed three tankers burned after hitting mines off the southern coast within a single 24-hour period. US Central Command tells a different story. It says American forces have cleared every internationally recognised primary route of mines, that the routes remain clear, and that US forces and regional partners, not Iran, control the strait. The shipping monitor UKMTO logged a vessel on fire 25 nautical miles northeast of Khasab on October 29, cause unknown, a day after a fire 9 nautical miles north of Khasab.

Aramco says its Yanbu and Shaybah sites show no damage after weeks of mine strikes, fires and missile intercepts, which fits the tracker data. None of this makes the strait safe: transit is down 80% from February levels, and incidents rose from roughly weekly in September to nearly daily by mid-October. But measured Saudi flows have not fallen with them, and a count of burned ships stays a claim until cargoes stop moving.

The diplomacy matters more for the price than the tally does. Iran rejected Washington's seven-day Hormuz plan on October 28, calling its terms "unacceptable demands", and Al Arabiya reports that mediators and Iran are discussing a meeting in Turkey before November 4. The Guards' count keeps the dispute over credibility with Washington alive while that track advances. An official briefed on the talks says Iran will answer the Qatari draft by the end of the week, and Axios reports US and Israeli officials expect a week of bombing if there is no deal.

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