Iran has intensified asymmetric attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, using underwater explosive drones, rocket-propelled grenades and limpet mines, according to a Wall Street Journal claim relayed by Saberin News, which is close to Iran's Revolutionary Guard. The aim, it says, is to disrupt oil exports and increase pressure on Washington while negotiations have stalled.

The claim lands in a dispute over what is actually happening in the strait. Arsenio Dominguez, head of the International Maritime Organization, said, as reported by The National, that at least 123 ships have been attacked in the strait and neighbouring waters since the war began in late February. He warned the real number could be higher. Ships on false flags or fraudulent registries tend not to declare attacks, and some tankers switch off their tracking systems.

The other evidence points both ways. US Central Command said the main transit routes are clear of mines, after Iran's Guards Navy said three tankers caught fire after hitting mines within 24 hours. Saudi shipping data show October volumes close to September's, and the Gulf crude premium has fallen from $34 a barrel to about $6. That looks like little lasting damage to supply so far, so the new detail on tactics adds to the argument over the strait's condition more than it shows a change in flows.

The talks are the sharper question. Iran rejected Washington's seven-day Hormuz plan on October 28, calling it a list of "unacceptable demands, not an offer". Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, said Hormuz will reopen only once Washington fully and explicitly answers Iran's seven conditions and acts on them, per Vahid Online. Heavier attacks alongside stalled talks would leave the two sides further from any agreed reopening.

Qatari mediators have travelled to Tehran twice in recent days with a new peace plan, which does not appear to have been accepted, Vahid Online reported. A senior Iranian official told Reuters that mediators are working to narrow the gap with the US but a deal is far off, and that Hormuz stays closed until Tehran's conditions are met.

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