US stocks rise on a chipmaker rebound as strong job openings lift yields and the dollar
Oil eased, and with the Fed still leaning towards higher rates, the rate path looks more likely than the AI trade to decide whether the gains last.
US stocks rose on Tuesday as a rebound in chipmakers revived optimism about AI. Strong job-openings data pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher, while oil prices eased.
The optimism sits awkwardly with the credit stress that hit the sector two weeks ago. On October 15 Nvidia fell 3%, AMD 5% and Intel 5.9% after Nvidia's Jensen Huang said the company would not backstop CoreWeave's financing. CoreWeave's five-year credit default swaps, which are insurance against default, hit a record 1,194.5 basis points. Its 2031 bonds fell to 82.75 cents on the dollar. That tied enthusiasm for AI directly to default risk.
The rate path adds to the doubt. The Fed held its key rate at 3.75-4.00% on October 28 on a 10-2 vote, with Cook and Hammack dissenting in favour of a rise. Fed official Lorie Logan says the central bank needs at least two more rises of 25 basis points each. BofA expects 25 basis point rises in December and again in March 2027.
Stronger job openings pushing yields and the dollar up fits that hawkish mood. Equities are drawing confidence from chip strength while rates firm on labour demand, and that is a fragile pairing.
© Raydn · raydn.us
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