The New York Times reports that the US is in talks with Venezuela on a long-term military presence there. That would take a relationship built so far on oil and politics into security, and it would be a lasting commitment rather than a deal on cargoes.

Earlier public signals were looser. In early October, President Trump said he was 'looking at' opening a US military base in Venezuela or elsewhere in South America, Colorado Politics reported. After a February meeting in Caracas between a US military delegation and interim President Delcy Rodríguez, Southern Command spoke of 'shared security', Nexstar reported. Rodríguez's office said both sides would work on a bilateral plan against drug trafficking, migration and terrorism. Neither mentioned bases.

Oil has been the main channel so far. The US reached a deal to control over 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan reserves, according to a report that raised concern Venezuela could become a resource colony. A US official said the deal is with a private entity, not Venezuela's interim government. Venezuela's National Assembly backed it.

Politics runs alongside. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said conditions for Machado's safe return to Venezuela resulted from US-supported reconciliation talks, which have seen hundreds of political prisoners freed. On October 9 he said those talks would resume on October 14.

The export numbers sit awkwardly beside all this. Shipping data show Venezuela's oil exports to the US dropped to 449,000 barrels per day in October, while exports to Europe rose to about 235,000. A base would add a security tie to a relationship built on oil, at a time when fewer Venezuelan barrels are heading to the US.

© Raydn · raydn.us