Kazimir, a member of the ECB's Governing Council, says the discussion has moved from whether further action is needed to how much. Waiting for inflation to rise and for companies to pass on their costs, he argues, is not smart policy.

He is not alone. Simkus said on October 14 that recent data suggest more tightening may be needed, De Marco said stronger core inflation could justify action, and Kocher said there would be a need for action if the situation does not quickly improve. Kazimir called September's increase inevitable and said in July that the bank would have to raise rates at least once more. The ECB has raised rates twice this year, in June and September, from 2.0% to 2.50%.

The data give both sides something. September consumer prices rose 3.8% from a year earlier, above the 3.7% expected and up from 3.2% in August, and the ECB's own survey put households' one-year inflation expectations at 3.0%, up from July. But core inflation, which strips out food and energy, held at 2.5%. Lagarde, the ECB's president, says wages show no material response to the energy shock and no sign of second-round effects, meaning price rises feeding into pay and back into prices.

The market has sided with Kazimir. Traders price several more ECB increases through 2027, and JP Morgan now expects a rise in December and another in March 2027, reversing its earlier call for a hold. Lagarde herself said on October 29 that the direction of travel on rates is quite clear to all, unless there is a surprise.

The question of who leads the bank next is also in play. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the search for Lagarde's successor will be completed by the end of the year.

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