Crude oil climbs as surprise inventory draw reinforces tightening supply picture

USO rises 2.34% to $157.16 a share after the Energy Information Administration reports a far larger stockpile drawdown than forecasters expected

US crude oil is firmer on Thursday after the Energy Information Administration reported a weekly inventory draw of 8.557 million barrels, well beyond the roughly flat build of 95,500 barrels that had been forecast.

Traders were also weighing attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, including a Singapore-registered vessel that was sunk there, along with the International Energy Agency's latest monthly report, released the same day, CNBC said.

The draw builds on the pattern set by the October 7 report, which showed a 3.186 million barrel drawdown that also beat its own consensus. Commercial crude inventories, excluding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, stood at 424.1 million barrels the week before this report, down from 427.3 million barrels the week before that and above the 420.3 million barrels held a year earlier, according to FXEmpire. US crude production was estimated at 13.979 million barrels a day, refinery crude inputs at 16.48 million barrels a day and exports at 4.765 million barrels a day, FXEmpire reported, citing EIA data. The Energy Information Administration's October Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent will average $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 higher than last month's forecast, citing expected increases in Middle East oil production and flows.

Two consecutive outsized draws reverse the run of surprise builds seen in late September, which had pushed sentiment toward oversupply, and they line up with the Energy Information Administration's October 6 upward revision to its 2026 Brent forecast, which cited falling global inventories. With physical stockpiles now drawing down faster than forecasters expected for a second straight week, crude oil has firmer grounds to hold its recent gains.