EIA lifts 2026 US oil output forecast to 13.87 million barrels a day
The agency also raises its 2027 projection while leaving demand forecasts for both years unchanged
Published
The Energy Information Administration now expects US crude oil production to average 13.87 million barrels per day in 2026, up from the 13.83 million bpd it forecast previously. For 2027, the agency raised its output projection to 14.3 million bpd from 14.26 million bpd.
The EIA left its demand forecasts untouched, at 20.6 million bpd for 2026 and 20.8 million bpd for 2027.
The revision continues a pattern of upward adjustments. In its September 2026 outlook, the EIA had already projected 2027 production at 14.3 million bpd, matching today's figure, while its 2026 estimate sat just below the new number at 13.8 million bpd, according to that report. A year earlier, in October 2025, the agency forecast production averaging 13.5 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, after data showed output had reached a then-record of more than 13.6 million bpd that July, the EIA said in a press release at the time.
With supply forecasts rising again while demand projections hold steady, the gap between the two is widening for a third straight outlook. That combination points to a market that may be more persistently oversupplied than prices have reflected, with the surplus looking less like a temporary adjustment and more like a trend that could keep weighing on crude.