LBMA delegate survey sees gold reaching $5,013 within a year
Last year's equivalent poll called for $4,980, a target gold blew past before sliding back below $4,000 in July
Published
Chart: GLD, a fund that holds gold, one-minute prices, three sessions
Delegates at the London Bullion Market Association's annual gathering now put gold at $5,013 an ounce within 12 months, according to the association's survey of attendees.
The forecast echoes, roughly, what the same poll produced a year ago. At the LBMA's October 2025 conference in Kyoto, delegates projected gold at $4,980 within a year, a figure framed at the time as a 27% gain from where the metal traded then, according to MarketMinute. Gold went on to overshoot that mark by a wide margin, touching an all-time high of $5,501.70 on January 29, 2026, before reversing hard to a 2026 low of $3,978.55 on July 1 and finishing that month at $4,026.60, according to LBMA data.
Formal house forecasts have moved in a narrower band than the delegate poll. The LBMA's January Annual Precious Metals Analyst Survey put the 2026 average at $4,741.97 an ounce, citing lower US real interest rates, continued Federal Reserve easing and central banks diversifying away from the dollar, according to Kitco News. A mid-year snapshot of 16 analysts in July averaged $4,500 for year-end, with estimates ranging from $3,879 to $5,100; five of the 16 named Iran as their chief concern, according to the LBMA. A separate tally of that same survey put the revised full-year average at $4,604, noting that the Fed's policy outlook had shifted toward incoming chair Kevin Warsh, according to IndexBox.
The $5,013 figure comes from a straw poll of conference attendees rather than a formal house forecast, but it still offers a read on sentiment among the dealers, refiners and central bankers who attend the event. A number that high suggests the industry crowd expects the rally to keep extending over the next year rather than stall or reverse. Because it reflects opinion rather than a supply or demand data point, it carries less hard information than a mine output or central bank reserve figure would, but it still factors into how traders judge how much further gold can run before positioning becomes stretched.