UKMTO reports seven vessel strikes near Strait of Hormuz since September 28
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps warns ships against using the US-backed transit route, as tanker traffic runs near two vessels a day versus a pre-conflict average of 125.
Published
Map: The Gulf and Hormuz, marking Strait of Hormuz
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations has recorded seven vessel strikes around the Strait of Hormuz since September 28, a sharp rise from the isolated incidents that marked the standoff through most of September. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned ships against using the US-backed transit route through the strait.
The strikes continue despite a statement from US special envoy Hassett on Friday that the Navy had reopened the strait and crude was flowing freely. That claim came the same day a tanker was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire and a blackout, the fourth such strike since mid-September. A separate tanker had been hit a day earlier in what was then the third unexplained strike on an outbound vessel since September. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said Friday it was ready to respond to any threat, after the United States reinforced troops near the strait following President Trump's rejection of Tehran's ceasefire offer.
Iran blames the strikes on vessels linked to the United Arab Emirates. No crude left Iran by tanker at all in September, according to Bloomberg estimates. Inflation in Iran is nearing 90 per cent and the rial has fallen 25 per cent in the past two months, Bloomberg has reported.
The shift from scattered incidents to a sustained pattern of strikes raises the odds that actual transit volumes, already running near two vessels a day against a pre-conflict average of 125, stay severely depressed rather than recovering as mediators had suggested earlier in the standoff. Crude oil carries the risk premium from this directly: each additional strike reinforces that the strait remains contested rather than reopening. Brent crude rose above $100 a barrel on Thursday as the tensions pushed Asian stocks lower, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index down 0.4 per cent and Japan's Topix down 0.9 per cent.