Tesla deliveries beat estimates but slip from last year's record
The total is below the 497,099 vehicles Tesla delivered in the third quarter of 2025, a record quarter that Electrek says was driven by buyers rushing to claim a federal tax credit before it expired.
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Chart: TSLA, one-minute prices, three sessions
Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles in the third quarter, above the 463,761 that analysts had expected. Model 3 and Model Y deliveries came to 479,528, while other models totaled 7,004, short of the 9,759 expected for that group. Production told a different story: Model 3 and Y output reached 457,387 against an expected 481,279, and other models were produced at the same 7,004 rate versus a forecast of 5,944.
A year earlier, Tesla delivered 497,099 vehicles, a company record, according to its own filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. That quarter's production came to 447,450 vehicles, split between 435,826 Model 3 and Y units and 11,624 other models. Electrek has reported that the 2025 surge was driven by US buyers rushing to claim the $7,500 federal electric vehicle tax credit before it expired on September 30, 2025, a pull-forward that this year's quarter did not have to compete against in the same way.
Tesla's own published consensus of 24 analysts, compiled by Not a Tesla App, had put Q3 2026 deliveries at 461,974, a figure this quarter also beat. Deliveries were also up from the 480,126 vehicles Tesla delivered in the second quarter of 2026, when Model 3 and Y accounted for 467,762 and other models made up 12,364, Not a Tesla App reported.
The beat gives Tesla a cleaner story heading into the Cybercab certification deadline that falls due on September 30, and it shifts attention away from reports of production snags at its Optimus robotics line, at least for the vehicle business. But the miss on other models, in both production and deliveries, points to strength concentrated in the core Model 3 and Y line rather than spread across the lineup. The $30 billion in credit facilities Tesla signed this week were arranged separately from the delivery result and do not change the read on demand.