Morning Briefing
Published
S&P 500 futures point to a higher open, up roughly 0.5%, as a coordinated push to ease the diesel and crude squeeze overshadows an overnight guidance shock from Nike. France has formally proposed that the International Energy Agency release 50 million barrels each of diesel and crude from member stocks, with Macron working the phones with Trump and Carney ahead of a planned G7 call, and Russia's Novak signaling Moscow would consider partially lifting its own diesel export restrictions if oversupply emerges. Crude is sliding sharply on the prospect of those releases.
Inflation data is complicating the backdrop for the European Central Bank even as the energy relief effort builds. Eurozone September CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year, hotter than the 3.7% expected and up from 3.2% in August, while core inflation held at 2.5% as forecast. The ECB's Rehn called the inflation outlook subject to "very high" uncertainty, warning that energy costs are adding upside risk even as higher long-term rates weigh on growth. In Washington, Fed officials remain split: Governor Jefferson has signaled the central bank may need more time before its next move, while Barkin, Collins and Schmid backed September's hike to 3.75%-4% without committing to further tightening. France's own bond risk premium has risen to 150 basis points, the highest since 2012, and the French 10-year yield touched 4.989%, a level last seen in 2002.
Technology is leading sector moves pre-market, with semiconductor names broadly strong, including Lam Research, KLA Corp and Applied Materials each up more than 1.8%, alongside gains across Intel, Nvidia and AMD. Energy is the lone decliner among major sectors as crude benchmarks fall on the diesel-release headlines, while Consumer Discretionary is split between a sharp Nike decline and gains in Airbnb and Royal Caribbean.
Company News
- Nike is down more than 9% pre-market after JPMorgan cut its price target to $33 from $40, adding to an 8% after-hours drop following fiscal Q1 revenue of $11.21 billion that missed expectations and guidance for a high-single-digit revenue decline in fiscal 2027.
- ON Semiconductor is up roughly 6% after agreeing to acquire Synaptics for $123 a share in a revised cash deal worth $5.70 billion, down from roughly $7 billion under the original agreement, with FTC approval already secured.
- Authentic Brands Group has discussed a takeover offer for Mattel that could value the toy maker above $20 a share, or roughly $6 billion.
- Paramount Skydance names Ynon Kreiz co-CEO effective October 5, ahead of its Warner Bros. Discovery merger, which is expected to close October 6 with WBD shareholders receiving $31.00 per share in cash plus accrued interest.
- Morgan Stanley named Nvidia a top pick.
Overseas Data
Tokyo's September consumer price index rose 2.7% year-on-year, above the 2.5% consensus, with core CPI excluding fresh food also running hotter than expected at 2.7%. South Korea's September CPI rose 2.9% year-on-year, in line with expectations and easing from 3.1% in August.
Eurozone September CPI rose 3.8% year-over-year versus 3.7% expected, with core inflation steady at 2.5%. Spain's September unemployment change came in at 23.6k, down from 44.4k the prior month.