The Opener
Published
Nike's guidance-driven selloff has only deepened overnight, with shares down 10.3% premarket after JPMorgan cut its target to $33 from $40, a sharper cut than last night's 8.2% after-hours drop suggested. Fair Isaac is also extending its decline, off 6.3% premarket after yesterday's post-earnings slide tied to the broader fallout around the ON Semiconductor-Synaptics repricing. ON itself is holding gains, up 6.4% premarket, as the market continues to reward the cheaper, already FTC-cleared terms of its $5.70 billion deal.
The bigger story heading into the session is a coordinated push to relieve the diesel and crude squeeze that has been building since the Hormuz disruption. France is now formally proposing that the International Energy Agency release 50 million barrels of diesel and 50 million barrels of crude from member stocks, and Macron has been working the phones with Trump, Carney and plans a G7 call to align on fuel supply. Russia's Novak says Moscow will consider partially lifting diesel export restrictions if there is oversupply, a notable signal given the Kremlin's insistence elsewhere that it will keep blocking weapons and fuel shipments to Ukraine via the Black Sea. Brent and US crude futures are falling further on the prospect of these releases, with the Crude Oil ETF down 4.1% and the Brent Oil ETF off 3.4% premarket.
Inflation data is complicating the picture for the ECB. Eurozone September CPI came in at 3.8% year-over-year, hotter than the 3.7% expected and up sharply from 3.2% in August, while core inflation held at the expected 2.5%. ECB's Rehn called the outlook subject to "very high" uncertainty and warned that rising energy costs are pushing inflation risk higher even as elevated long-term rates slow growth.
Elsewhere, Japan's JGB yields continue to drift higher across maturities, the 40-year now at 4.270%, and Toyota's Thailand flood disruptions are keeping plants closed until October 10. Morgan Stanley added Nvidia to its top pick list, and US index futures have pushed to session highs, suggesting the diesel-release headlines are doing more to calm markets than the overnight Nike and Fed noise.