S&P 500 futures point to a firmer open, up 0.4%, as a chip-led selloff that had pushed the Nasdaq 100 into correction territory after Intel's warning reverses sharply on hopes that the US-Iran standoff is cooling. Semiconductor names are driving the bounce, with SK hynix up 4.8%, Micron up 2.8%, and the iShares Semiconductor ETF up 1.9%, while crude slides and the VIX eases, a classic risk-on rotation even as the underlying conflict has not actually resolved.

The diplomatic signal is mixed at best. Iran's Baghaei says message exchanges with Washington continue through Doha and that Tehran has floated a revised seven-stage proposal that could be implemented within two days, conditional on the US ending its naval blockade, but he also says Iran does not expect a new US approach after Tuesday's midterms and that the Vance letter offers no new basis for talks. Axios cites a diplomat describing progress, yet the IRGC says 11 tankers have burned in the Strait of Hormuz since October 25, and overnight an Iranian tanker caught fire after hitting mines while the Qatari LNG carrier Al Mayeda was struck by unclaimed projectiles. Netanyahu is reportedly pressing Trump to resume strikes once the midterms pass, while Trump has said he prefers to give diplomacy more time. Brent fell 4% overnight on the de-escalation hopes even as Goldman Sachs raised its December Brent forecast to $105 a barrel from $90, and Vitol's CEO warned the oil system has low inventory and no spare capacity, with demand needing a year to recover to 2025 levels.

Technology leads sector gains, up 1.0%, with Accenture the lone laggard at -1.3%. Energy is the weakest sector, down 0.6%, tracking the crude pullback. High beta and momentum factors are outperforming while the equal-weight S&P 500 is up just 0.1%, pointing to narrow breadth behind the rally.

Company News

• Marvell Technology and Lumentum are combining to create what the companies call a category leader in AI connectivity; Marvell is up 3.1% and Lumentum up 3.0% pre-market. Lumentum separately reported fiscal Q1 EPS of $4.57, beating estimates, and cited a second major optical networking win backed by purchase commitments exceeding $5bn.
• IDEXX Laboratories beat Q3 estimates and raised full-year revenue and EPS guidance, though shares are down 1.5% pre-market on a trimmed operating margin outlook.
• Marriott International beat Q3 estimates and raised its full-year RevPAR growth outlook, while flagging continued disruption from the Middle East conflict on international demand.
• Estée Lauder beat Q1 estimates and raised its fiscal 2027 sales, margin, and EPS outlook.
• CNA Financial missed Q3 EPS estimates on an unfavorable long-term care reserve charge that its CEO said is largely offset by investment portfolio gains; Loews, CNA's parent, posted a similar reserve-related charge with the same offsetting argument.
• Rollins is down 6.8% pre-market, the session's largest single-stock decliner.
• Binance says net outflows have reached $4.7bn since Sunday following its hack, with withdrawals for additional networks set to resume Tuesday.

Overseas Data

India's HSBC manufacturing PMI slipped to 54.7 in October from 54.9. Germany's manufacturing PMI was finalized at 54.2, matching expectations, while France's came in at 49.5, slightly above the expected 49.3, and the UK's reading was 52.8.

Germany's September retail sales fell 2% month over month, against expectations for a 0.4% gain. The UK 10-year gilt yield fell to its lowest level since September 2023, and the 30-year gilt yield dropped to its lowest since August.

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